Publications - Brazil

Essays and Articles:

Brazil

"O Obama desconhecido"

São Paulo, O Estado de São Paulo, 30 de maio de 2008.

"Os Blindados" Para os que ainda relutavam em admitir a existência do mensalão, o Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) mandou um singelo recado: sim, o mensalão existiu. Exaggerated public spending and institutional weaknesses threaten Brazil´s stability in uncertain times for the world economy. O Estado de São Paulo. September 12, 2007.

“The Struggle for Better Schools: São Paulo and New York.” A four-part series of Sunday articles in O Estado de São Paulo based on five weeks of research in New York on the Bloomberg-Klein school reform, focusing on the challenge to Brazil´s public education. Published April 29, May 20 (Patricia Guedes), June 17 and July 15, 2007.

*The Struggle for Better Schools: São Paulo and New York

> English > Português (PDF)

*The Struggle for Better Schools: São Paulo and New York - Teaching and Learning

> English > Português (PDF)

*The Struggle for Better Schools: São Paulo and New York - Order and disorder in the schools

> English > Português (PDF)

*The Struggle for Better Schools: São Paulo and New York - What is to be done

> English > Português (PDF)

“Mending Brazil´s Megacity: For the first time in history, a majority of the world´s population now lives in cities. In the developing world, the names of vast new megacities –Dhaka, Lagos, Calcutta, Jakarta—are synonymous with human misery. But São Paulo is seeking to show that a megacity can work.” The Wilson Quarterly. Summer 2007.

> English (PDF)

Educação ou morte: O americano estudioso do Brasil diz que o país é melhor do que se pensa, mas tem desafios cruciais a superar,”
Interview by Roberto Pompeu de Toledo.
São Paulo: Veja magazine, February 1, 2006
> English > Português (PDF)

O preço da segurança
Artigo sobre a crise na segurança pública do estado de São Paulo, onde dezenas foram mortos, em consequência aos ataques às Polícias do Estado, pela facção do PCC
São Paulo, O Estado de São Paulo, 17 de maio de 2005.
> Português (PDF)

Lula and Mephistopheles
Democracy 4: Brazil needs a new strategy
Braudel Papers. No. 37. (2005).
> English > Português (PDF)

Lulagate and Watergate
Jornal O Globo, July, 2005 - Brazil
> Português

Diadema Democracy 3: Frontier violence and civilization in São Paulo's periphery
Braudel Papers. No. 36. (2005).
Freign Policy - Edición español - Nº 9 - Junio/julio 2005
> English > Português (PDF) > Español

“Why Lula Won”, analysis of Brazil´s 2002 election. El País (Spain), November 3, 2002; Hindustasn Times (India), November 4, 2002; Caretas (Peru), November 7, 2002

"Blackout in Energy Policy: Brazil’s difficulties in making decisions,”
Braudel Papers. No. 31. (2002). Analysis of the political, regulatory and financial problems contributing to electricity shortages in 2001-02 and their potential consequences.
> English > Português (PDF)

“Por que não lutar?"
Reflexões inconvenientes sobre as eleições de 2002
16 de agosto de 2002..
> Português (PDF)

“Por que abandonamos a escola pública?”, Analysis of the unsolved murder of a school principal and proposals for reducing violence in the schools of Greater São Paulo
O Estado de São Paulo, 28 de abril de 2002..
> Português

“São Paulo Metropolis: Political Disorganization and Problems of Scale,” Braudel Papers. No. 28 (2001). Analyzes the evolution of the political structure of the giant city, with the fastest long-term growth rate in human experience, and suggests some changes..
> English > Português

"São Paulo Symphony: Rebirth of an orchestra as civic beacon," Braudel Papers. No. 26 (2000).
> English > Português

"The Risks of Unbalanced and Predatory Federalism in Brazil." With Marcos Mendes. Jornal da Tarde, São Paulo, August 21, 1999.
> Português

"The Police: Perverse incentives and public security." Braudel Papers No. 21 (1999). With José Vicente da Silva. Analysis and policy recommendations to deal with surging crime in Greater São Paulo, the world’s third-largest metropolis, and the paralysis of institutions of public security, reinforced by a culture of perverse incentives that is embedded in parasitism, impunity and bureaucratic privilege.
> English > Português

"Crossroads of transportation: Can Brazil’s roads and ports overcome decades of neglect?" Braudel Papers No. 19 (1997). With José Carlos Mello. Decapitalization of transport infrastructure threatens Brazil’s long-term modernization process. New investment and reorganization from privatization is only part of the answer. Intelligent and effective regulation and increased public investment also are needed to enable Brazil’s ports, highways, railroads and urban transport support broader participation in the world economy.
> English > Português

"King Kong in Brazil: State bankruptcies and bank failures." Braudel Papers. No. 15 (1996). Special edition. Inflation now is low but the institutions of chronic inflation are alive and making enormous claims on government resources. Since the Real Plan was launched, massive federal support has gone into sustaining operations of five of the 10 biggest banks that were since merged into other institutions or are still in deep trouble, in one of the most complex banking crises in financial history. Brazil’s big trouble now is a spreading cancer of bank failures and state bankruptcy.
> English > Português

"Behind the world’s biggest bank failure: Expensive efforts to rescue Banespa and keep the bank in the hands of the governor of São Paulo are all too typical of a Brazilian political cultiure that presents a clear and present danger to economic progress."Institutional Investor. September 1996.

"Elastic debts: state bankruptcies threaten Brazil’s Real Plan," Braudel Papers. No. 12 (1995). With Marcos J. Mendes of the Central Bank of Brazil. Prepared for our international conference on "Rebuilding Public Institutions in São Paulo State," November 27-29, 1995.
> English > Português

"China and Brazil: Big countries struggle for order and progress," Braudel Papers. No. 10 (1995). With Fan Gang of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, member of the Fernand Braudel Institute of World Economics. Fiscal autonomy and credit-creation in provinces threatens revival of inflation in China and Brazil.
> English > Português

"Social Capital and Inflation in Brazil," Braudel Papers. No. 9 (1995). The phenomenon of human cooperation remains a mystery. Cooperation is a dynamic process of continuous adaptation, involving a certain cost. We must either accept this cost or deal with the greater hardships of deepening disorder. In Brazil as elsewhere, stability of prices has become critical to political stability. Comments on Robert Putnam’s "Social Capital and Democracy," published in the same issue.
> English > Português

Strategic and Political Dimensions of the Brazil-Bolivia Gas Pipeline Project. A report to Technoplan, São Paulo. April 1993.
> English > Download (43,3kb)

"Não vai dar em nada?" [Will nothing come of this?], Braudel Papers . São Paulo: Fernand Braudel Institute of World Economics, January-February 1993.
> English > Português

"The Floating World and Brazilian Inflation", Fernand Braudel Institute of World Economics, 1992.
> English

"After the Impeachment in Brazil, the Abyss Still Looms,"The Wall Street Journal, October 2, 1992, editorial page. Analysis of the causes and possible consequences of the fall of President Fernando Collor.

[Electrical Energy and Chronic Inflation in Brazil: Decapitalization of the State Enterprises.] Energia Elétrica e Inflação Crônica no Brasil: A Descapitalização das Empresas Estatais. With Diomedes Christodoulou and Roberto Hukai. São Paulo: Fernand Braudel Institute of World Economics (1990). A detailed study, sponsored by the Ford Foundation, of the threat of electricity shortages in Brazil under the long-term impact of chronic inflation.
> English Download (193kb)

"Hyperinflation still threatens Brazil: The German inflation in the eight years from 1914 to 1922 was more moderate than Brazilian inflation from 1980 to 1988." ("Hiperinflação ainda ameaça o Brasil: A inflação alemã, nos oito anos entre 1914 e 1922, foi mais moderada do que a brasileira, entre 1980 e 1988."’) First part of a study of The Anatomy of Hyperinflation by the Fernand Braudel Institute of World Economics, published simultaneously in the newspapers Jornal do Brasil (Rio de Janeiro) and O Estado de São Paulo, Sunday February 26, 1989.

"Economia mundial entra em nova era" ["World economy enters new era"], O Estado de Sao Paulo, October 9, 1988. Full-page synthesis of lecture at the inaugural conference of the Fernand Braudel Institute of World Economics, held in Sao Paulo, Brazil, August 31, 1988. Written in Portuguese. English version available.

"Prometheus in Sao Paulo," a detailed report on the Brazilian computer industry, explaining how the Brazilian government closed its home market as Brazilian entrepreneurs got technology through easy licensing by U.S. companies and ancient methods of technology theft. Full Portuguese version published in Jornal da Tarde, Sao Paulo, December 15-18, 1986. Shorter Portuguese in Jornal do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, December 14, 1986. Truncated version published as cover story, Forbes, December 15, 1986 (see U.S. and general).

"Don’t push us too far," Forbes, Feb. 10, 1986. Taped interview with Brazilian Finance Minister Dilson Funaro. "In Brazil, Latin America’s most prosperous debtor country, again there is talk of default. Is the debt crisis about to flare again?"

The Political Economy of Petrobras: Petroleum and Economic Development in Brazil. (1985) A 25,000-word report to the ILO/Norway project, United Nations, on the impact of recent oil industry developments on economic development, focusing on offshore oil, transfers of production technology to Brazil and the radical interfuel substitution now taking place to reduce consumption of refined products.

"Brazil: The Last Gold Rush," Harper’s Magazine, December 1984. Analysis of Brazil’s big gold rush and potential as a major gold producer, based on extensive field reporting in Amazonia. Compares Brazil’s gold fever today with the rushes of previous centuries around the world, assessing future role of Brazil as a gold supplier in the light of South Africa’s decline. Fuller Portuguese version in Jornal do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, December 2 & 16, 1984 (Caderno Especial). French version in Perspectives, Paris, February 1985.
> English

"Brazil’s New Gold Rush" (cover story), Forbes, May 21, 1984.

"Crisis Averted?", Forbes, March 1984. Taped interview with Brazil’s Central Bank president, Affonso Celso Pastore, on the surge of Brazil’s exports in 1984 and his efforts to restructure the credit system and public finances.

"Brazil and the Bankers" (cover story), Forbes, December 5, 1983. Brazil can’t pay the interest or principal on its $90 billion foreign debt. In 1983 interest alone was half of export earnings and 5% of GNP. Unknown to most foreigners, Brazil’s domestic public debt has been mushrooming even faster and has threatened a hyperinflation akin to Germany’s in the 1920s. This article argues that these obligations must be scaled down and that international banks can absorb the shock. Portuguese version published in Jornal da Tarde, Sao Paulo, December 24, 1983.

"Uma falsa saida," guest column in the Brazilian newsweekly Veja, Sao Paulo, January 4, 1984. Comparison of foreign borrowing by Brazil and the U.S. to cover government deficits.

"The Great Soybean Migration," Forbes, August 30, 1982. Second part of a cover story on financial and marketing problems of U.S. agriculture, focusing on new soybean supplies pouring onto the world market from South America’s Parana River basin (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay) amid major structural changes in the grain trade.

"Brothers in misery," Forbes, April 12, 1982. Report on Poland’s default on its $1.5 billion debt to Brazil, which itself owes $70 billion to foreign banks and governments, analyzing the dynamics of foreign trade and barter among highly leveraged countries.

"Why is inflation so virulent?", Forbes, October 13, 1980. Taped interview with former Brazilian Finance Minister Octavio Gouvea de Bulhoes, who argues that accelerating world inflation since World War II comes from redistribution of income from business profits into salaries and points to a return to pre-Keynesian economics. Portuguese version published in Jornal do Brasil, October 5, 1980.

"When capitalism and Christianity clash," Forbes, September 1, 1980. Taped interview with the Cardinal-Archbishop of Sao Paulo, Paulo Evaristo Arns, on revolutionary movements in Catholicism in the light of Pope John Paul II’s teachings during the 1980 papal visit to Brazil. Portuguese version in Jornal do Brasil, July 27, 1980.

"Brazil at the Brink," Forbes, February 4, 1980. Broad analysis of Brazil’s crisis of debt and inflation as it enters the 1980’s, plus a taped interview with Economic Czar Antonio Delfim Netto.

"Elasticity snaps," Forbes, April 28, 1980. "The gasoline price in Brazil has tripled since the start of 1979. That has caused strikes and riots, but it also has cut deep into consumption."

The Twilight of Nuclear Exports: Brazil and Iran. American Universities Field Staff Reports (1979). Analysis of the collapse of the nuclear power programs of Brazil and Iran and its impact on the international reactor industry. Portuguese version published in the Jornal do Brasil. Rio de Janeiro: December 3,1978 (Caderno Especial). Shorter English version, "Nuclear Energy: Trouble in Promised Lands", published in Forbes. November 27, 1978. Full English version serialized in The Buenos Aires Herald. April 12, 17, 18, 1979.

"Ludwig’s Amazon Empire", Forbes.. May 14, 1979. Portuguese version published in Jornal do Brasil (Caderno Especial), May 20, 1979. A 7,000 word analysis of Daniel Ludwig’s Jari project, embracing large scale irrigated rice production and forestry-pulp operations, discussing the project’s political problems and its economic and technological implications for tropical South America.

> English (PDF)

"Brazil and the Defense of the West" ("Ate que ponto os EUA interessam ao Brasil"), Jornal do Brasil. (Caderno Especial). March 4, 1979. Analysis of U.S.-Brazilian relations.

Noah’s Ark: Energy from Biomass in Brazil. American Universities Field Staff Reports (1978). A broad-gauged analysis of Brazil’s rapid energy transition and the opportunities for development of photosynthetic and other biomass fuel supplies, focusing mainly on efforts to substitute alcohol for gasoline. Portuguese version publish in the Brazilian army magazine , A Defesa Nacional. No. 682. March-April 1979. Shorter version published in Jornal do Brasil. (Caderno Especial). September 24, 1978.

Letter from Rondonia: A Report on the Brazilian Frontier, Part I: BR-364. Part II: Strategic Reach. Part III: The Settlers. Part IV: Ridge of the West. Part V: Resource Horizons. A five-part study of human penetration and settlement of the most fertile region of Amazonia, based on field interviews and historical research, with comparisons between the northern and westward expansion of the Brazilian frontier today and the occupation of the American West a century ago. Produced for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1977. Published by American Universities Field Staff Reports, 1978. Portuguese version serialized in O Estado de Sao Paulo (four Sundays), February 26 and March 5, 12, 19, 1978.
> English

In the Name of Democracy: Brazil’s Presidential Succession. American Universities Field Staff Reports, 1978. The emergence of the chief of Brazil’s National Intelligence Service, General Joao Baptista de Oliveira Figueiredo, as the personal choice of outgoing President Ernesto Geisel (1974-1979) to be the new President, provokes crisis and controversy in the military-political system.

"The Rise of Brazil", Commentary. January 1977. An 11,000-word analysis of the forces behind the emergence of Brazil as an important country and the spread of dictatorship in Latin America. Portuguese versions published in O Estado de São Paulo, March 13, 20, 1977 and in the military magazine A Defesa Nacional, No. 674 (1978). Spanish version serialized in Equis X (Lima), February 9 and March 9, 1977. German version in Berichte (Munich), March-April 1978.
> English > Print Version

"Atoms for Brazil, Dangers for All", 17,000-word essay on the Brazil-German nuclear deal, published concurrently in Foreign Policy (23) and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (June 1976). Portuguese versions published in O Estado de Sao Paulo, June 13, 20, 1976 (consecutive Sundays) and by the Fundacao Getulio Vargas, March 1977, in the book entitled As Multinacionais e o Brasil. Spanish versions in Resumen (Caracas), June 20, 1976; Estrategia (42) (Buenos Aires), September-October 1976 (special issue on nuclear policy), and in Presencia (La Paz) serialized successive Sundays, August-September 1976. French version in Esprit (Paris), December 1976. Dutch version in Intermediair, October 15, 1976. Italian version published in Revista di Studi Politici Internazionali (Florence).
> English

Home | Biography | Publications | Publication List | Contact
ngall@braudel.org.br